It's been two weeks since Facebook unveiled its new messaging service and so far the world seems to be pretty much what it was before. Facebook execs called it everything from a "modern" messaging service to a "Gmail killer" except they didn't call it JAMS — Just Another Messaging Service. After years in the e-mail business, it's pretty clear that it takes a marketing group several years before they really understand the market well enough to find their niche. Messaging is one of the most difficult markets to understand. That's because on the outside things look pretty simple — "it's just e-mail isn't it?" but finding the sweet spot is complex because ... e-mail is the most popular application on the planet. e-mail works on almost every computer, handheld, tablet, mainframe, mini, micro ever built and will work on anything new that comes out in our lifetimes. And its popularity is what makes it such a difficult area for marketers to understand — because it is so widely used, every marketing hypothesis that you dream up is valid — you can say, as Facebook's Mark Z. did — that e-mail is too slow. Sure, you'll find a lot of people that agree with that. But you can also say that it's fast enough and you'll find a lot of users who agree with that. Simply stated, finding the next killer app in messaging isn't easy. Facebook says it had a huge team on their messaging service — 15 people for 15 months. It probably will take more than that (last time we checked Microsoft had over a thousand). Facebook has built in some nice features — smart mail box to triage incoming messages and also organize threads and multiple delivery options (e-mail, Instant Messaging, SMS, whatever...) — most of which have been around in various forms. And of course a lot of users will sign up for it — but they could have built a JPOES product (Just a Plain Old e-mail System) which would end up with lots of users. The most interesting thing is that they are giving each Facebook user an @Facebook.com e-mail address. That's needed, of course, because despite being a modern mail system they really would like to interconnect with the rest of the world. This may come out to be a good idea or, in fact, it may end up opening up Facebook users to the outside world — who knows what clever things developers will do. Surely you can make pronouncements about having saved the world from traditional e-mail but what actually happens might turn out to be more complex than anyone anticipated.
